It was always going to be a tight contest, with both sides needing a win in the penultimate game of the league phase. Each had already dropped points -- Wolfsburg to Lyon and Real Madrid to Arsenal and Paris FC -- so everything was still to play for.
Despite finishing the match with nine players, Real Madrid were dominant and ultimately frustrated a Wolfsburg side desperate to reclaim its former continental stature. Everything was positioned for Wolfsburg to take control and reassert their standing as one of Europe's powerhouses. Instead, their profligacy and lackluster performance told a different story that suggests a shifting of the tide where Real Madrid might well disrupt the established top order.
Maëlle Lakrar's two quick yellow cards just before halftime left Madrid a player down, and Iris Santiago's late red card deepened their disadvantage during a lengthy stoppage time, yet Wolfsburg were still unable to capitalize.
They had begun with momentum, but Real Madrid were allowed to settle, a costly mistake with a side as ruthless as them, leading to María Méndez sneaking the opener from a swinging corner. Although Wolfsburg saw more of the ball and created the bulk of the chances, they lacked composure and clinical ability in the final third and repeatedly fell short.
At the other end, Madrid's pace on the counter caused constant problems. Even after Lakrar's dismissal, Wolfsburg failed to use their numerical advantage effectively. Their attacks became rushed, narrow and predictable. Though they had bundles of space with an extra body, they seemed to crowd in the same areas, indicating a failure to adjust at halftime.
Linda Caicedo was exceptional throughout. After forcing two big saves from Wolfsburg's Stina Johannes earlier, she doubled Madrid's lead against the run of play in the 67th minute. The bewildered expressions on the Wolfsburg players captured their frustration at how quickly momentum slipped away, and the pendulum swung against them.
Wolfsburg squandered more chances, with Alexandra Popp coming closest to a breakthrough through a powerful strike that Misa Rodríguez saved well. Madrid, meanwhile, nearly added a third when Caroline Weir fired wide from close range after another Caicedo-created opportunity.
Madrid closed out the match with nine players after Santiago's straight red card in stoppage time for a reckless challenge on goalkeeper Johannes, but even then, Wolfsburg could not take advantage. They had 19 shots with six on target, to Madrid's eight with half on target. Their slumped posture at the final whistle told the story: a night of missed opportunities and mounting disappointment.
"We started really well, with chances, but it's disappointing to have lost," Wolfsburg defender Janou Levels said postmatch. "If we had converted some of our chances, the game could have been different. We tried to open up the game more with an extra player and put in more crosses, but in the end it was difficult to create clear-cut chances. Now we have to be ready to win at home against Chelsea and get a good result. We have to move on."
If any team seemed capable of challenging the ruthlessness of OL Lyonnes or Barcelona, many believed it was Wolfsburg, especially after their commanding 5-2 win over Manchester United. With history on their side and Popp, the club's all-time top scorer and one of the competition's most experienced individuals, they looked poised for a resurgence. Instead, they have fallen short once again, and the campaign that was meant to restore their standing among Europe's elite is quickly unraveling.
Although both teams have secured a place in the knockouts, their route, whether direct qualification or a playoff, remains uncertain, with this result carrying significant implications for their respective pathways.
Real Madrid have temporarily moved into the top four, but with five matches scheduled for Wednesday, they must now wait to see whether other results keep them there. Avoiding the playoffs will be difficult, yet they have firmly kept themselves in contention. With Wolfsburg facing Chelsea, Lyonnes meeting Manchester United, and United set to face Juventus on the final day -- all sides are within touching distance of the top four -- Madrid have a realistic chance of holding their position.
After years of underwhelming campaigns, including a bottom-of-the-group finish last season -- losing five of their six games and claiming only a single point -- they have disrupted the expected hierarchy of Barcelona, Lyonnes, Chelsea and Arsenal, reminding Europe that they remain a threat.
For Wolfsburg, the defeat severely damages their hopes of automatic qualification. With two losses in five games and a decisive meeting with a wounded Chelsea side next week, fresh off their first league defeat in 34 matches, their chances of reaching the top four are slim.
Once the dominant force in Europe, with two titles between 2012 and 2014 and four runner-up finishes, Wolfsburg have fallen short of expectations in recent years. A bruising final loss to Barcelona in 2023, elimination in qualifying the following season, and a quarterfinal exit last year have stripped them of their juggernaut status. This latest setback adds to a growing list of underwhelming results, and the only German club ever to win the competition now looks likely to be playing two extra fixtures in February.
While Real Madrid will enjoy the moment, their focus will quickly shift to tomorrow's results, which will determine what they must achieve against Twente -- and which outcomes they need elsewhere -- to secure a coveted top-four place.
